Alabama by 10 1/2?

I am sick and tired of hearing the national media say that Utah can not hope to match up to the size and speed of Alabama.  I even heard a one media member, Jesse Palmer for College Game Day, mention that if he were a betting man, he would bet that Alabama would more than cover the 10 1/2 point spread.  Not going to happen.  Here is why.  I have done some research into a few things.  

Alabama played has played 13 games this year.  They are 12-1 with the only loss coming against currently ranked #2 Florida (U. Meyer is a football god).  Sounds great for an SEC team.  Their opponents had an average win total of 6 games.  6.1 to be exact.  I thought the SEC was the dominant conference?  The key wins for 'Bama were Clemson (7-5), Georgia (9-3), and LSU (7-5).  The highest ranked (current) team they beat was Georgia (15th in the BCS and 17th in the AP)  Although they played Florida a lot closer than I thought they would, they don't have the resume that screams "big time football"!  They scored 405 points in the year which is 31.15 ppg and allowed 169 points (13 ppg).  The highest point total for them this year was 49 against Arkansas, and lowest points allowed was 0 twice, Auburn and Arkansas State.  Their defense is NASTY.  They only allowed 13 points per game and Florida scored 31!  After watching their D against Florida, they are fast and strong.  But, The thing that I noticed is that when they are spread out and fear a passing attack, they are more vulnerable.  Ole Miss scored 20 points and LSU (Gary Crowten's spread style) scored 21 and forced overtime.  So, they don't look so scary to me.

Utah on the other hand, has played 12 games this year.  They are 12-0 and have played three ranked (currently) teams.  TCU is ranked 11 in both the BCS and AP polls, BYU is ranked 16 in both the BCS and AP polls and Oregon State is ranked 24th in the AP poll but unranked in the BCS poll.  Utah's opponents have an average win total is 6, so just a little less than Alabama's.  However, if college football's schedule's were graded as basketball's is, Utah's RPI would be much higher because Oregon State losses were to much better teams than Arkansas States losses.  TCU only lost to Utah and Oklahoma.  BYU only lost to Utah and TCU.  So all in all, in the conference, the only losses among the three teams came at the hands of a team ranked 16th or higher.  I thought the SEC was suppose to be the tougher conference to come out of.  Utah scored 449 points at 37.4 ppg and allowed 207 at 17.2 ppg.  Again the numbers are a little unfair.  BYU, TCU, Air Force and Oregon State all have top 25 offenses when the only two that 'Bama played are Georgia and Florida.  With those numbers alone though, I say Utah by 3.  

I also compared team stats.  Both teams average 5.7 yards per play and allow around 4.5.  The glaring differences are how they gain the yards.  Utah passed for 236.8 ypg and rushed for 168.4 ypg.  Alabama passed for 170.7 ypg and rushed for 196.5 ypg.  Even Time of possession is very similar.  Utah 32:40 and 'Bama 32:11.  King Louie must have a good game.  If he does, I predict Utah by 5.

The biggest thing I have heard is that Utah's D line can't handle the size and speed of Alabama's O Line.  Um, size?  Really, I thought BYU had one of the largest and most atheletic O lines in the country.  So I looked it up.  Alabama's line in an average of 6-4.4' and 306.6 pounds.  Wow, that sounds really big.  Oregon State, for example, is average for the Pac-10 and is 6-3.4' and weighs in at 299.6 pounds.  So, Alabama is taller and bigger than OSU.  BYU however, is HUGE!  Dallas Reynalds alone is an animal.  He allowed just two sacks all year.  They average an astounding 6-5.4' and 325.6 pounds making Alabama look little league.  And I forget, how did Utah's D-line do against BYU and Max Hall?  Yah, they got pushed around and couldn't get any pressure.  I remember...oh wait... no... if I remember right, Paul Kruger and Koa Misi showed the nation how good they really are and although they didnt sack Max Hall, they were the reason that he through five interceptions and lost the fumble.  Just ask him how good they are. 

My biggest concern is Gary Anderson being half interested in the prep for the game.  People here in Utah are saying that it's ok because Coach Whit is a Defensive coach.  The problem is that Coach Whit's defenses have always run straight man.  Almost no zone.  They just execute better than others.  Coach Anderson's Defense would throw Zone in every once in a while and lot's of zone blitzes.  I really think that is a bigger loss than we know going into next season.  Also, I'd like to thank Kansas State for taking Andy Ludwig and I hope we get an OC that either wants to (and knows how to) run the spread offense or says "I'm running MY offense, not the spread".  We wish you all the luck in the world Andy, but don;t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out!!

Final prediction for the game:

Utah 34  Alabama 29